Over the past year, the detached home market in Greater Victoria has experienced a significant shift. If you're wondering whether prices are moving up, down, or stabilizing, here's what the actual data shows and what it means for your decision to buy or sell.
The Big Picture: Stabilization After Decline
A year ago, we were still in the midst of a correction from the pandemic-era peak. Homes that sold for $1.15M in 2022 were going for $1.05M by early 2025. That downward pressure has largely stopped. We're not seeing homes drop another 10–15% in 2026. Instead, we're in a consolidation phase where prices have found a floor. The benchmark single-family home at $1.05M reflects this equilibrium. Some months show slight upticks, others show slight dips, but the overall direction is sideways—which, for buyers, is actually good news because it means you're not buying into a falling market.
Neighbourhood-Specific Movements
Prices haven't moved uniformly across Greater Victoria. Oak Bay has remained relatively resilient, with homes holding steady or appreciating slightly. This is partly due to the neighbourhood's prestige and limited supply of new listings. Victoria Core homes have seen more volatility—older, smaller, character homes have softened slightly, while newly renovated properties command premium prices. Saanich is showing modest appreciation in well-kept family neighbourhoods. Outlying areas like Langford and Colwood have seen the most interesting dynamics: new builds are still pushing prices higher as developments complete, but resale homes in these areas are more price-sensitive. Esquimalt has become a buyer-friendly area with modest appreciation.
Condition and Renovation Matter More Than Ever
Here's what I'm seeing in the data: homes in excellent condition appreciate or hold value, while homes needing work soften. A well-maintained home in Sidney fetches closer to asking; a dated home sitting next to it might linger. This means if you're selling, renovation ROI is worth calculating. If you're buying, you have leverage to negotiate inspection items. The days of buying a fixer-upper sight unseen are over. Buyers want move-in ready, and that commands pricing power.
Interest Rate Impact on Pricing
Here's something many people miss: home prices and interest rates are linked. When rates were at 6–6.5%, buyers' purchasing power dropped, which dragged prices down. Now that rates are coming down toward 4–4.5%, that same $1.05M home becomes more affordable for the same monthly payment. This could support prices or even push them slightly higher later in 2026. The takeaway: if you're sitting on the fence waiting for prices to fall further, you might be waiting for the wrong catalyst. Rate improvement is more likely to support the current price floor than break it.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect
For detached homes, I expect 2026 to be a year of modest appreciation—probably 1–3% across Greater Victoria, with some neighbourhoods moving a bit faster. This isn't the explosive growth of 2020–2021, but it's also not decline. It's healthy, sustainable market movement. For buyers, this means locking in now isn't urgent, but delaying won't save you money either. For sellers, it means pricing competitively and positioning your home to attract serious buyers in a market with more choice than before.
I'm Dan Juricic, a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun. If you have questions about the Victoria market, I'd love to help. Call or text me at (250) 514-8261 or visit danjuricic.com.