Spring and summer are the most active seasons for real estate in Greater Victoria. If you're thinking about buying or selling, you're probably wondering what to expect over the next few months. Let me share my forecast based on current market conditions and historical patterns.
Spring Brings Increased Activity But Not Frenzied Competition
March through May typically sees the market wake up after a slower winter. Inventory builds as sellers list their homes to capture spring demand. This year, we'll see that pattern, but it will be measured. We won't see the explosion of multiple offers that characterized 2021–2022. Instead, we'll see steady activity at 460–500+ sales per month, with sellers competing on price, condition, and presentation rather than just price alone. Homes in great condition, fairly priced, will attract multiple showings. Mediocre listings will sit. Spring is the best time to list if you're a seller, but there's also more competition from other sellers capitalizing on the same seasonal advantage.
Inventory Will Remain Elevated Through Summer
Unlike previous years when summer inventory tightened, I expect we'll maintain elevated supply through June and July. The condo market in particular will have listings available. This benefits buyers tremendously. You can shop without urgency. You can ask tough questions during negotiations. You can take time to find the right neighborhood fit. For sellers, this reinforces that you need to be strategic—marketing, pricing, and condition are your differentiators.
Interest Rates Will Likely Remain Favorable
My forecast assumes mortgage rates will hold in the 4–4.5% range through summer, possibly dipping slightly lower. If that holds, affordability remains decent, and buyers' purchasing power stays consistent. Should rates spike unexpectedly, that would pressure the market downward quickly. But based on economic forecasts, steady rates seem more likely. This is favorable for both buyers and sellers—it means the market won't experience external shocks.
Pricing Will Be Steady to Slightly Appreciating
I expect 1–2% appreciation across most of Greater Victoria through summer 2026. Not the 10–15% run-ups of previous cycles, but also not declines. This steady appreciation reflects a market finding equilibrium. Some neighborhoods—particularly established areas like Oak Bay and desirable parts of Saanich—might see slightly more appreciation. Outer areas like Langford and Colwood might see slower appreciation or sideways movement. But overall, expect stability, not volatility.
Different Market Dynamics by Neighborhood
Not all neighborhoods will move in sync. Victoria Core will remain active due to its walkability appeal and downtown renaissance efforts. Oak Bay will be steady and premium. Saanich will attract families capitalizing on good schools. Esquimalt will appeal to value-conscious buyers. Sidney will attract retirees and those seeking a seaside lifestyle. Langford and Colwood will see continued new construction activity. Understanding these neighborhood-specific dynamics is crucial for both buyers and sellers.
What This Means for Your Decision
If you're a buyer, spring and summer 2026 offer the best selection of the year. Interest rates are favorable, inventory is available, and you can shop without pressure. The window of advantage remains open. If you're a seller, list sooner rather than later within spring to capture early-season demand, but understand you're competing against other sellers with the same idea. The homes that stand out will sell; the rest will linger. Price competitively, show well, and be ready to work with your agent on strategy.
I'm Dan Juricic, a REALTOR® with RE/MAX Camosun. If you have questions about the Victoria market, I'd love to help. Call or text me at [phone] or visit danjuricic.com.